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Left alliance confident on bagging simple majority in central parliament

By Our Reporter
The leaders of the left alliance seem confident to win majority seats in the House Representatives and form a communist government in the centre. More confident are the cadres of the CPN-UML and the Maoist centre, who were arch rival to each other until Dashain this year, about forming a majority government of communists.
However, if look at some important facts, it looks unlikely that the left alliance will win a simple majority seats in the federal parliament. First, the UML have fielded only 99 candidates for the House of Representatives and supported 58 Maoist candidates under the first-past-the-post election system. It has also supported some independent and an RPP candidate. Therefore, the UML will win maximum 60 seats under FPTP and 40 under the proportional election system, while the Maoist Centre will win 10 or less seats under the FPTP and 20 under PR election system.
It means the alliance will short of eight seats to form a majority government. Although both K P Oil of the UML and Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre have been claiming that the two parties will be unified after the polls, adjusting senior leaders of both the parties in the unified party will be problematic. If Dahal is given the status of the second position after Oli in the new party, there will be a problem in other positions as the UML have two former prime ministers and three former deputy prime ministers while the Maoist-Centre has also two former deputy prime minister and one sitting DPM (Mahara) to adjust in the unified party.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that Maoist boss Dahal will always be with UML as he has already deceived both the UML and NC by forging and ending alliance.
As such unity in the two parties look elusive, and without unity the two parties will not be together for a long time. As such, it looks unlikely that the alliance garners a majority seats and forms a government in the centre. Moreover, there is not certain that Dahal will win the polls, and if he loses polls, he will accuse of the UML of not being honest. As such, there will not be unity in the two parties. Similarly, if Madhav Kumar Nepal loses elections in Kathmandu-2, a faction of the UML will oppose the unification as Oli will be blamed for the defeat. Even a defeat of Narayan Kaji Shrestha in Gorkha will quash the unity process even though the electoral alliance between the two communist parties was the brainchild of Shrestha.

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