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India’s wait and see strategy regarding Nepal

By Our Political Analyst
India, which had attempted to internationalize the issue of violation of human rights in Nepal specially on discrimination on the Madheshi people and had warned PushpakamalDahal “Prachanda” that a case would be filed against him in Hague, has decided to keep pending these attempts for the time being. When the KP Sharma Oli led government denied to follow the instructions from India, India had initiated this strategy. Now, after toppling the Oli led government as per the Indian design, the Indian media has felt that it was a great victory for India in ousting of the Oli led government and also it has badly exposed the NC-MC alliance by claiming that the design was developed in India. The Indian media projected newly elected Prime Minister as India’s own man.
PM Dahal in a trap:
Dahal became Prime Minister for the second time but he has no enthusiasm with the post of the executive chief of the country. It took almost one month to give a final shape to the government and even after spending more than a month in office Dahal is unable to show his strong presence in the government. It seems, he is humiliated and demoralized. The government has been unable to bring a minimum common programme by introducing the policy of the government. It seems, the present Dahal led government has no plan, vision and programme.
Dahal has become the Prime Minister to resolve mainly two issues – to dismiss the court charges on the Maoist leaders on serious violation of human rights including murder cases even against Dahal himself and to dismiss corruption and money laundering cases against him and other Maoist leaders. Without making happy the Indians and also the Westerners, he cannot resolve the cases on serious violation of human rights during the “people’s war’ era.
Therefore, during his scheduled goodwill visit to Delhi next week, Dahal’s prime concern will be to make the Indians happy and get free from such serious charges.
Likewise, during his visit to New York to attend the UN General Assembly, Dahal has wished to hold a separate meeting with the US President Barack Obama.  Dahal wished to explain about the political situation, peace process and truth and reconciliation process to Obama. Whether Dahal will get chance to hold a separate meeting with Obama, it has not become clear till date.
Dahal, during his visit to Delhi, will try to avoid signing any visible agreements except from giving assurances in developing environment for handing over some of the key projects, including the fast track road project to India. It is said that Dahal has already briefed the Indian diplomats here that if ‘he signs any controversial agreements including the fast track project during the visit, KP Oli will get an opportunity to capitalize the “extreme” nationalistic sentiment and it will be counterproductive for India itself.
The Indians have also become convinced with Dahal’s arguments, it is said.
Be that as it may, Dahal may endorse some secret agreements during the visit with the aim of pleasing the Indians, even members in the Maoist center are worried.
Constitution amendment:
PM Dahal’s prime agenda has been the amendment of the constitution and bringing the Madheshi Front in agitation in the mainstream politics. Even after spending more than one month in office, Dahal has not achieved remarkable success in bringing the Madheshis in mainstream politics. When Dahal announced celebration of the first anniversary of promulgation of the constitution in a grand manner for three days by inviting all the diplomats, even non-residential ambassadors, the Madheshi Front decided to observe the event as a black day. The Madheshi Front, to counter the government decision, has decided to observe a three day long black day.
On the other hand, without support from the UML and RPPN, the constitution cannot be amended. Dahal has said that before his visit to Delhi, the government will register an amendment bill in the parliament and the bill will be discussed only after his return from New York. Until now, there is no gesture from the UML and RPPN in supporting the government for amendment of the constitution by addressing the demands of the Madheshi Front.

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