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Will Dahal be the next PM?

By Our Political Analyst – Considering the ongoing political developments in the country, it seems, the present KP Sharma Oli led government will face a crisis soon. In this context, again, UCPNM chair Pushpakamal Dahal can be rewarded and be the new prime minister of this country.
Nepali Congress has already developed the strategy to topple-down the present coalition government led by UML chair KP Sharma Oli. NC is preparing to disturb the government from presenting the budget for the next fiscal year. Furthermore, to fail the government, NC has decided to intensify its protest campaign against the government on the allegation that the government has failed to provide relief support to the earthquake victims and also to start the reconstruction works of the quake demolished structures. Although NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has not opened his mouth, senior NC leaders in the Deuba camp have already remarked that the government has already failed and NC should take a leading role to form a new coalition government. Understandably, the NC leaders are in a hurry to become ministers in the new government.
Meanwhile, the Lainchour Durwar is calculating on political equation for the next government. Our southern neighbour believes that the KP Oli led government having DPMs such as Chitra Bahadur KC, CP Mainali, is contributing for intensifying anti-Indian sentiment. The Lainchour Durwar is seriously concerned on intensifying of the anti-Indian sentiment among the Nepali people.
Furthermore, Delhi has reached to a conclusion that the KP Oli led government will not address the Madheshi agendas. Therefore, Delhi wants to change the government. The recent visit of NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba to Delhi and his official and unofficial meetings with the Indian leaders are also related to the change of the government, say observers.
Earlier, Delhi was waiting for the NC’s national convention. Sources close to Delhi were saying that after the NC’s national convention, Delhi will initiate the game to change the government. Now, after the NC’s national convention, as per the Indian schedule, efforts for changing the government have taken place.
Technically the Oli led coalition government bags support of 335 MPs in the Parliament, including 83 MPs from UCPNM. If UCPNM will take back its support from the government, in that case, Oli will face crisis.
At present, the total strength of the parties in opposition, including the NC and tarai based parties is 239 only. If the UCPNM will join the new alliance, there will be the strength of 322, very close to a comfortable majority. If some small parties in the present government will also shift their support to the new alliance, very easily it will secure a comfortable majority. Therefore, the future of the Oli led government depends on the UCPNM.
Daha’s mood:
If Pushpakamal Dahal will get the opportunity to lead the next coalition government, he may shift camp. Dahal has wished to become the PM for one year or say until conducting the local level and provincial elections. After conducting local level and provincial elections, he is ready to handover the power to the NC government, which will hold the central level elections.
According to sources, Dahal was heard saying to his confidantes in the party that further continuing support to the Oli government will be an act of irritating India. Therefore, he is not in a mood to take further risk on his political future by making angry India. However, he has put the condition that he should get the opportunity to hold the local level and provincial level elections. If this condition is fulfilled, he is ready to join the anti-Oli alliance by taking back the party support to Oli.
Dahal believes that Oli has neglected the demands of the Tarai-Madhesh parties. Without addressing the demands of the Tarai centric parties, the constitution cannot be implemented, Dahal has understood, say UCPNM leaders.
Furthermore, Dahal has become suspicious from the act of Oli, as he has not become serious on implementation of the peace process by dismissing the cases filed in the courts regarding the Maoists’ “people’s war” era. Many of the Maoist leaders are facing threats from the court on different charges that were made during the “people’s war” time.
In the recent past, the supreme leaders of five Maoist parties, who were together during the “people’s war” period, held a joint meeting and expressed serious concern on the government attitude. The Maoist parties are demanding to send all the court cases to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
Dahal has started to say to his confidantes that Oli has started to work by sidelining him, from which, he is unhappy with Oli. Dahal therefore is preparing grounds to quit the alliance with Oli.
When UCPNM standing committee leader Gopal Kirati called a press conference and expressed the view that the party should quit the government immediately, Dahal, UCPNM chair, didn’t ask any clarification to him on the charge of speaking against the party-line. From this also, one can understand the mood of Dahal.
Although, Dahal is not a trustworthy and faithful candidate of Delhi, there is no better option except from using Dahal for the time being to topple down the Oli-led government. On the other hand, Dahal, who made many attempts to become India’s man, on which, he has failed in the past, he will get an opportunity to please the Delhiwhallas and enjoy the PM’s post as well.
Deuba is a strong candidate for the next PM, but he is not in a hurry. Deuba believes that the Tarai centric parties’ demands should be fulfilled but not at the time when he is the PM. He wants somebody else to fulfill the demands of the Tarai-centric parties.
Likewise, the Madheshi parties in agitation are also of the view of toppling down this government as soon as possible. For this cause, they are ready to accept any of the alternates. Accordingly, Madhav Nepal faction in the UML is also against the continuation of this coalition government.

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